Two more should-be-final 20 degree highs to start the work/school week

Posted on Oct 6, 2024 by bendavies

It’s a small heat wave, nothing too record-breaking. In fact, we probably will at most be 5 degrees away from any sort of highest temperature record. Even if it isn’t too big of a heat wave, I can still write about it!

The reason for this heat wave, is, very surprisingly a heat dome. That doesn’t usually happen at this time of year. The thing is, it’s staying far to the south; maybe only brushing Canada’s border a tiny bit. We’re only catching the edge of this system, and if you go all the way down to something like Lethbridge, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday all have good chances at 25. Since we’re only getting the topmost affected areas of the blocking high, and it is bordered by cold waves on either side, it’s only going to actually be noticeably “hot” or “very hot” on Monday and Tuesday.

For the actual temperature values, Monday is probably a high of 21, though it could land as low as 19, or as high as 22. (that 19 is very unlikely, by the way) Tuesday is more like a 22, but it could be as low as 20, or as high as 25. If you’ve already packed your summer gear away, or you’re not a fan of the heat, then don’t worry about that 25. It is something like a 5-10% chance of that actually happening; that’s really low.

If you were wondering what is coming after this heat, then wonder no longer. We’re going to be quickly heading right back down to average and maybe even below average. The rest of the week is probably mid-to-low teens for highs, except for Friday, where it’s more like a “close to 10” Oh yes, and really good chances of frost Wednesday and Thursday night.

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Keep an eye out tonight for aurora!

Posted on Oct 3, 2024 by bendavies

A strong CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) left the sun around Tuesday afternoon, and it’s looking like it’ll create widespread aurora over the next 2 to 3 nights.

Here are some tables for the aurora:

Tonight

TimeForecasted probability of auroraForecasted cloudiness
Sunset – 9 pm70%Partly cloudy
9 pm – Midnight90%Partly cloudy
Midnight – 3 am50%Partly cloudy
3 am – 6am30%Partly cloudy
6 am – Sunrise30%Partly cloudy

Tomorrow night

TimeForecasted probability of auroraForecasted cloudiness
Sunset – 9 pm70%Mostly cloudy
9 pm – Midnight70%Partly cloudy
Midnight – 3 am50%Partly cloudy
3 am – 6am50%Mostly clear
6 am – Sunrise50%Mostly clear

It seems like the best chance of any will be tonight, specifically late in the evening. After midnight aurora is still very possible, but it’s definitely not as probable. Tomorrow night has lower chances for the evening but higher overnight. This means, paired with low cloudiness, that we might see the best aurora tomorrow night, even though there’s a lower overall chance of it.

If you want to know what to watch for if you’re really hoping to see some aurora, then consult the boxes below.

Links:

  1. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental
  2. https://www.aurorawatch.ca/component/option,com_frontpage/Itemid,1/
  3. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind

The first links tells you about some basic conditions.

At the top you have a panel that says “Space Weather Conditions”. Under “Latest Observed” if the G box says anything that isn’t none, that means there’s an >50% chance of aurora right now. If you scroll down a bit, there’s a panel that says “Where will the aurora be in the next few minutes?”. You’re going to want to look at the Northern Hemisphere section. Click the play button, and wait for it to load. Once it has played, you will be able to see where aurora has the highest chance of being right now. If it looks like we have yellow, orange, red, of green that could change or is changing to yellow, that means there is a good chance of aurora in the next little while. (~30 mins) Going down a little bit more, under “What is driving the aurora?” there is a box that says “Planetary K index” If you see the bars there going up, that means that the chance of aurora is increasing. If they’re going down, it’s decreasing. If the rightmost bar is extending beyond 4, that means the aurora is considered active for our area. Anything beyond 6 is considered very active.

The second link is much simpler. All you really need to know about it is that the percentage right at the top is the probability of aurora in Edmonton at this exact moment.

For the third link:

  • On the option that says a bunch of unnecessary stuff and then EPAMp in brackets, anything going up means aurora is more active.
  • On the magnetic field option, if the yellow bar is exceeding +/- 20, and the white and red bars are going above 20, the aurora is becoming more active.
  • Finally, on the second SWEPAM option, if the yellow bar is going above 800, and there is more instability than normal in the red bar, the aurora is also becoming more active.
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August and September recap: Firsts, lasts, and records

Posted on Oct 2, 2024 by bendavies

I would have done a recap for only August quite a while ago, but September was a little crowded, so here’s a 2-in-1.

Let’s start off with records. Firstly, we got absolutely ZERO records in August. Of course, that would be negative 0 if you’re Jason. In September, a handful of records were broken from the heat waves, amassing to a humidex record of 33 on the 2nd, max. temp of 32.1 on the 6th, max. low of 13.7 on the 7th, max. temp of 30.8 on the 8th, and max. low of 14.5 on the 25th.

For the firsts and lasts, I’ll write it down in the list below:

  • Aug 4 was the first day of the second half of 2024 where the temperature never reached above 25.
  • Aug 5 was the first day of the second half of 2024 where the temperature never reached above 20.
  • Aug 29 was the first day of the second half of 2024 where the temperature reached below 10.
  • Sep 3 was the last day of 2024 where the temperature never reached below 15.
  • Sep 8 was the last day of 2024 where the temperature reached to 30 or above.
  • Sep 12 was the first day of the second half of 2024 where the temperature never reached above 15.
  • Sep 21 was the first day of the second half of 2024 where the temperature reached below 5.
  • Sep 24 was the last day of 2024 where the temperature reached to 25 or above.
  • Sep 25 was the last day of 2024 where the temperature never reached below 10.

Well, hopefully I can do a recap for October not in December!

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Probable frost, a possible single-digit high, and even negatives! Tomorrow’s going to be exciting…

Posted on Oct 1, 2024 by bendavies

Yeah, it’s looking like tomorrow will be cold. I think our expected high is about 5 degrees below normal.

First and most importantly, that frost probability is looking pretty high, so I would advise you cover up your plants. Based on the current forecast, ~60% chance. But, of course, that is lower for higher-lying areas and higher for lower-lying areas.

For the actual temperatures, the high is 10 on the forecast, except AccuWeather is actually saying 9. That is interesting, because I’ve noticed that if AccuWeather suddenly changes by a degree or two for it’s high or low about 24 hours for it actually happens, then it’ll usually end up being that. Another similar thing I’ve noticed is that if Environment Canada makes a bold prediction that’s quite a bit different from the others, and that stays for a while, then it’ll probably happen as well. That is exactly what has happened with a -1 low tomorrow night. Both the others have been saying a BIG NO to a negative, but EnviroCan itself has been keeping -1 or something very similar on the forecast for about 3-5 days now.

If you were wondering what the reason for all this cold is, it’s a low moving from the Gulf of Alaska to the rocky mountains to bring a trough is the jet stream before quickly fizzling out. It is going to be alive for long enough for some cold temperatures, but not long enough for any sustainable cold wave.

Oh yes, and this cold we’re getting has actually lasted quite a while. Hmm… That could be big for a mid-October cold wave!

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October outlook: A warm and dry September repeat, or cold chaos? Maybe (and probably) both…

Posted on Sep 30, 2024 by bendavies

October is looking pretty changeable, as in the temperature will change a lot, and the forecast will change a lot. Since we’re heading into a weak La Niña, and the patterns aren’t being easily predictable, so I’ll wont be able to give you much more than a vague idea of what’s coming in the next month. Of course, take everything with a grain of salt, a bigger grain of salt the farther we venture in the forecast. Weather’s always changing unpredictably, especially this October.

We’re starting off in the short time frame without much uncertainty. It looks like Wednesday and Thursday will have highs near 10, so feels like in winds in the “very cold” range. It does seems like afterwards, we’ll get a handful of degrees above 20 in a heat wave mainly based on the 7th.

Everything after the next week, especially the second half of October, could really end up being anything. The overall pattern seems similar to recent times, with alternating short El Niño and La Niña patterns. For now, I’ll give you a table of possible dates for those.

DateTypeStrength (This can change a lot!)
3rdColdMedium – High
7thHeatMedium – High
10thColdLow
13thHeatMedium – High
16thColdCould be any
19thHeatLow
20thColdCould be any
22ndHeatVery hard to tell if it’ll happen
23rdColdVery hard to tell if it’ll happen
24thHeatVery hard to tell if it’ll happen
25thColdVery hard to tell if it’ll happen
26thHeatVery hard to tell if it’ll happen
31stColdCould be any

One period of importance here the 16th – 21st. This place has the possibility of becoming an extended cold wave. It’s very hard to say, but it might not be too unlikely. If it happens, it could bring significant snowfall!

I’ll update you with another post if the forecast ever gets a little more confident.

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Could we see 25°C AND snow this week?

Posted on Sep 16, 2024 by bendavies

Short answer: Yes. For the longer answer, continue reading.

No matter which one you are or are not excited for, remember two things: 1. For both, it is more likely it won’t happen then it will, and 2. For both, the probability of it happening it is far from a 0% chance.

Starting off with the 25, I would say the most likely day that we’ll get it is tomorrow. The forecasts are currently saying 22 for The Weather Network, and 24 for Environment Canada and AccuWeather. Currently I’d say it’s going to be a high of 23 or 24. but still there’s a good change at having a 25. For more info, check out the chart below.

Now for the snow. This one is a little more compllicated. The lows of the forecast is sort of favouring a cold low for Friday night. Right now, maybe 3 or so? All I need is The Weather Network to get at least 3 degrees lower, and then I’ll be much more certain. You might be thinking: “3? That’s not enough for snow at all!” The thing is, we don’t actually need freezing temperatures for snow. If the temperature cools down quickly enough as you go up in the atmosphere, and we have something like 15 km/h winds which continue or even get stronger higher up, and there is instability in the atmosphere, you can actually get snowfall a few degrees above 0. All of those things are currently on the forecast, so all we need is some precipitation at the right time, and we might get probably not complete snow, but a mix of rain and snow, or even something like snow grains.

It seems like this week is shaping up to be very interesting, so keep looking at your email and this website for the latest forecasts.

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[Archive] We’ve broken a heat record already – could we see another one?

Posted on Sep 16, 2024 by bendavies

[Posted Sep 6, 2024]

Today’s record high was 31.1. Was.

At about 4 pm, (right when I started that little forecast of yours) the temperature officially broke through the 31.1 barrier, making today the first, and probably not last, day of September with a record-breaking high.

This heat is looking like it will continue for the next 2 days, with the most likely highs being 30 for both. Tomorrow, the record high is 32.2, est. 2017. That will probably keep going for at least another year (I’m hoping many), because I would say there is about a 10% chance of a high above 32. Sunday is where it’s really going to happen, with the record high being a mere 30.3, all the way back in 1981. 70% chance I’d say.

On the last post about this heat wave, I actually was thinking there might be another record on Monday. This is very not the case anymore, since the temperature plummet is looking like it will happen much earlier and faster than expected back then. This plummet could see us dive from a likely record-breaking high on Sunday to maybe even 5 degrees below average on Wednesday. More on that in a post I’ll send this weekend. (Unless if something comes up, of course)

[2 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

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[Archive] Record breaking highs possible over the weekend as temperatures climb towards the 30s

Posted on Sep 16, 2024 by bendavies

[Posted Sep 4, 2024]

El Niño is having one last big push, where it looks like this final major heat wave of the year might give us one or possibly, but unlikely, two record-setting highs.

Tomorrow the high is looking like it’s going to land in the mid 20s, so definitely no record.

On Friday, the high is looking like it going to land at 27-32, most likely 29. The record high is 31.1, so there’s about a 20% chance that we get a record.

For Saturday, it’s looking like 26-31 for the high, most likely 29 or 30. The record high is 32.2, so it’s very unlikely that we’ll get a new record.

Sunday is looking like our best chance for a record. The high is probably going to be at 26-32, most likely 29 or 30. The record high is 30.3, which leaves us with about a 40% chance.

On Monday, the range for the high is looking much lower, specifically 29-32, most likely 30. The record high is a blistering 32.9, so probably no record.

Finally, for Tuesday it’s looking like a high of 25-28, most likely 27, so once again a low chance of a record.

Overall, Friday and Saturday look like the most likely days for record-setting highs. Keep an eye on your email for the latest forecasts!

[4 views, 1 like as of Sep 16, 2024]

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[Archive] September temperature outlook – Here’s what to expect

Posted on Sep 16, 2024 by bendavies

[Posted Sep 1, 2024]

September’s forecast is starting to shape up to be very interesting. It looks like we may begin 10 degrees above average, and end 10 degrees below. Here’s the forecast:

We are starting off the month with a massive 31 degree high tomorrow caused by a strong ridge in the jet stream. Normal temperatures will come back quickly, but temporarily, with a high possibly below 20 on Wednesday. The warmth will come back soon with another heat wave beginning around Friday, which could, but probably won’t, give us another high in the 30s. The heat wave is expected to slowly erode all through the weekend and into next week. It is hard to tell when it’s going to end right now, but at the moment I’m placing it in the second half of next week.

The second half of the month is looking basically the opposite of the first half. We’ll start it off with some low temperatures around the 16th. The actual lowest high for that cold wave is really dependent on when the heat wave ends. If it ends late next week, then about 15. If it ends mid next week, there’s a chance of our first below 10 high. After that, it’s looking like there might be a mini heat wave around the 20th, which will probably be the last 20 degree temperature of the year, before a big cold wave. This cold wave is looking pretty long-term at the moment, with the possibility of November-like highs and maybe even snow near the end of the month.

Get ready everyone, because Fall is about to come.

[1 view as of Sep 16, 2024]

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[Archive] Back to school: Here’s what to expect

Posted on Sep 16, 2024 by bendavies

[Posted Aug 28, 2024]

School is starting back up! This year the first two school days are a really odd Thursday and Friday before a long weekend. Doesn’t make much sense, but I can still forecast the weather for it!

Currently, our little low that has been producing some cool temperatures and rainy conditions has just recently broke off from the main jet stream flow, making a cut-off low. Hay, that rhymed! This should mean we should transition to partly cloudy soon, because that is the usual condition northwest of a cut-off low, which is where we are right now. The thing is, by the time the weather can actually catch up to what it wants to be, the low is going to have moved off enough that we just clear straight to no clouds tonight.

On Thursday, a high pressure ridge that will develop tonight will start to bump up the jet stream around the Rockies. This pattern is actually a very common thing in El Niño, and it is indirectly caused by that little trouble-making low over the Gulf of Alaska making a return. The mini-ridge will actually warm the temperatures a few degrees above average, meaning the temperature might feel more early August-y, rather than late. Currently the high is looking like something near 23. For the wind on Thursday, it’ll flow off the Rockies and towards Hudson Bay from the high pressure ridge, as it usually likes to do. All this wind will actually make it be pretty breezy tomorrow, meaning the feels like temperature will be near average values. Finally, for the clouds, it’s looking sunny with some cirriforms here or there.

For Friday, It’s looking almost completely the same as Thursday, so, just like before, you can expect a high near 23, with somewhat breezy winds. The only difference is the clouds, where it’s looking like we’ll have higher cloud cover, since there might be a couple bits of scattered Cumulus and Altocumulus among the remaining cirriforms from Thursday. Just a note, the temperature does look more likely to land above 23 than below, but that’s still not for sure.

[6 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

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