Ben's Weather Blog

[Posted Aug 26, 2024]

Get ready everyone! Another cold wave is on the horizon.

To start the explanation off, I’m going to lay out the current conditions, as always. Right now the systems that are effecting us are a high that is in Saskatchewan, a low over Hudson Bay, and finally a low pressure “complex” (as I like to call it) over the area of western NT – YK – northern BC – off the southern coast of Alaska. If you happen to know about blocking patterns, or you just watch The Weather Network a lot, you definitely now know that I’m about to write down some stuff about an omega block. If you don’t know what that is, the next paragraph should fill you in.

“Wave patterns” are patterns of the jet stream and pressure isolines that indicate specific weather conditions in areas relative to them. An “omega block” is a type of blocking pattern, which is a category of wave patterns. Blocking patterns are just wave patterns that are very organized, and don’t let any other systems through. An omega block occurs when the jet stream comes in from west, goes below a low, wraps up and around a high, before going straight back down to another low. In the area near the high, there are warm and dry conditions. In the areas near the lows, there are cool and wet conditions. Omega blocks usually take a while to break up, meaning they can bring devastating droughts a few hundred kilometres away from devastating floods. Great.

At the moment, we are right on the western edge of the high pressure area, meaning above average temperatures, but not super above average temperatures. Since the high is moving off pretty quickly to the east, tomorrow will be much more average. The interesting stuff begins tonight, when the little low over the Gulf of Alaska attempts to cross the mountains, but it just can’t do it. Therefore, it’s squeezed in by surrounding highs, before dissipating. The upper-level trough needs a new host, so it grabs on to the low up in the Northwest Territories, and “troughs” it down to northern and central Alberta, before strengthening it very fast. We could already see the troughing begin this morning!

It will really start to get going Tomorrow afternoon and evening, when the rapidly-strengthening low will stir up the atmosphere enough for some thunderstorms. Those will eventually move off, leading the way for some very heavy rain and possibly flash flooding overnight. The rain will continue until sometime on Wednesday. Wednesday will be very special for other reasons, because it is the day when the low passes right over us. This means a very cold high, and very strong winds and gusts.

Here are my predictions for the overall weather:

Tonight: Clear with a couple of clouds, and a low of 13 or 14. Gentle winds, with gusts of 40 possible.

Tomorrow: Clouds slowly shrouding more of the sky, eventually leaving us overcast. A thunderstorm or two in the mid to late afternoon with showers afterward. A cool high in the low 20s, with a gentle breeze.

Tomorrow night: Light rain in the evening, with a possible lingering thunderstorm, giving way to strong winds and gusts paired with periods of heavy rain and possible localized flash flooding overnight. Low near 10, feeling like 5.

Wednesday day: Rain tapering off with possible gale-force gusts and a high in the mid to high teens, possibly much lower though.

Wednesday night: Winds calming and clouds parting with a low near 10.

[0 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Aug 16, 2024]

The cold has come, and generally it looks like it will bring low 20 highs for today and the weekend. This post is mainly going to be just for the reason why we’re getting the cold.

At this very moment we are sort of in the middle of the polar and equatorial jet streams. The polar is just a few hundred kilometres north, while the equatorial is in the central US. Generally when this pattern occurs, we’ll get near average temperatures. We are looking like few degrees below, though, and that would be all from the rain. Usually when rain falls it’ll make the temperature rise much slower than normal, so lower highs. If we were going to be dry, we would probably be getting highs more like 22-25.

The reason that we’re getting all the cold and rain is a sneaky little low that formed recently over southern BC. It managed to split the entire jet stream in two, making the polar and equatorial jet streams, and it also sent out an army of troughs into the surrounding area, exploding the couple clouds we had last night into a full on overcast-with-light-rain Nimbostratus.

The reason we are going to keep getting rain all through the weekend is the low, of course. It’s staying put, sending out trough after trough keeping the prairie Nimbostratus alive even through the whole time the jet stream is pulling it away at lightning speed off to Hudson Bay. Eventually, something like Sunday night or Monday morning, a high will push up the jet stream enough that it blocks the low from making any more troughs. This ridge is actually going to be part of an omega block, meaning we’ll get hot real fast on Monday.

Overall for the weekend, expect highs in the low 20s, with some showers at times, sunny breaks at others, and possible thundershowers in the afternoons/evenings.

[0 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Aug 15, 2024]

We’re halfway through August already! It’s the month when we start getting fed that first taste of Fall, though no falling yet. That’s a September thing.

For the wind, you would usually expect this month to be when we get some gusty winds and cooler breezes. In this first half of August though, it really hasn’t been too windy or gusty, with only 4 days with some actual winds that could make the forecast “Breezy”. Those days are the 3rd, 4th, 10th, and 14th, if you were wondering.

For the precipitation, it’s been dry, not bone dry, but water vapor dry. The only significant precipitation has been in our mini cold wave of the 3rd and 4th, were we got a total of 26.8 mm of rain on the two days, with the most on the 3rd.

For the temperature, so far we’re cooler than July, with the average temperature being 19.6, instead of 22. I think it is very probable that that will go down as we keep going through the month, as it looks like weaker heat waves and at least two more cold waves are coming up, while the first half had only one cold wave and stronger heat waves. I think we will end up at 19 or maybe 18 for the final result.

Overall in the past 15 days, it’s been a fight between two sides for temperature, with warmth on the first 3 days and the last week, and cold anywhere in between. The lowest high and low so far are 18.4 and 11.2, which actually happened three days apart, with the high on the 5th and the low on the 8th. The highest high and low were even more apart, with the highest high a mere 3 days ago, when we almost reached 30, only 3 fifths of a degree away, while the highest low was achieved near the start of the month with a low of 17.7, on the 2nd.

For the smoke, it’s not been too bad at all except for yesterday and today of course. On the first week, we had some very good air quality, with the averages hanging around 30. The second week was still okay, with averages near 60, but Wednesday was bad, with 127. Early this week has actually brought an improvement, with the averages going down to about 50. The only really bad stuff has been yesterday and today, with the averages in the 200s, with the worst being today.

Finally, for the forecast, it’s looking like sort of the same stuff. Two heat waves, and one or two cold waves. There is an interesting trend though, this was not even showing yesterday by the way, it looks like after a few warm days at the start of next week, we might actually end up with near to below average temperatures for the rest of the month. So far, after the cold wave we’re about to get, the next cold wave looks like the 21st – 25th, though that is still uncertain, and another is possible around the 30th. That is really hard to tell at the moment, but if it happens, and if it gets strong, we could see a 2-week long cold wave for mid next week all the way through the rest of the month. That is very hard to tell right now, so at the moment it is covered by a lot of question marks. I will make sure I get a post out when I know for certain when and how long were getting the cold wave.

[3 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Aug 13, 2024]

This is the previously-promised complete records of July 2024. There were no more daily records, so this will just be the second table.

*MDA = Most days above

*MCDA = Most consecutive days above

Note: MCDA days can be heat waves with only a portion of the days inside July.

Overall, it seems that 2021 had more days that were hot, and longer stretches of hot days, but 2024 had the temperature hotter. This makes sense, because we already started getting that special temperature pattern in July.

[0 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Sep 1, 2024]

As you may have seen on the forecasts, we are going to be getting some cooler temperatures soon. That sounds like a table!

Explanation on the cooldown coming Tomorrow or Saturday!

[3 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Aug 1, 2024]

Any of you remember the El Niño season of 2022 – 2023? Specifically August to February? Well, if you can remember the weather way back then, then you’re in for some Déjà vu this season! The big temperature pattern was:

Cold wave for 2-14 days, then a temperature rise of ~20 degrees, then a heat wave for 2-14 days, then a temperature drop of ~20 degrees, repeat.

We had a grueling 7 months of this in the El Niño season of 2022 – 2023, and it looks like it’s happening again. I first started this long-range forecast-venture around the start of July, where I actually figured out that we’re getting this pattern until January or February. All it took was a peek at the ENSO forecast and some past ocean temperature data, plus some climate averages.

It took all the way until yesterday evening while making the forecast to discover something very special about the temperature in July: The pattern has already started. Here’s a layout of the temperature:

Cold wave 1st – 6th – Lowest temperature 13, on the 4th.

Warmup 7th – 8th – Temperatures rise by 20 degrees over 12 hours.

Heat wave 7th – 11th – Highest temperature 36, on the 10th.

Cooldown 10th – 12th – Temperatures drop by 21 degrees over 60 hours.

Cold wave 12th – 14th – Lowest temperature 14, on the 13th.

Warmup 15th – 17th – Temperatures rise by 19 degrees over 36 hours.

Heat wave 15th – 23rd – Highest temperature 35, on the 18th.

Cooldown 23rd – 25th – Temperatures drop by 18 degrees over 60 hours.

Cold wave 14th – 27th – Lowest temperature 11, on the 15th and 16th.

Warmup 26th – 28th – Temperatures rise by 17 degrees over 36 hours.

Heat wave 28th – 31st – Highest temperature 30, on the 31st.

A full month of ups and downs! It seems a little one-sided though, since the highest temperature almost broke the all-time record, while the lowest was only 11. The thing is, that was just from the way the dice rolled! (Also maybe a little El Niño and climate change played a role) We could have easily had 30 and 5.

Now for the forecast. Overall, this pattern will continue until about January or February next year. In July, we had the temperature overall above average. In August, it looks like near average, and as we head into Fall, we should see that change into below average, and that trend is expected to stay for the rest of the year.

[0 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Jul 24, 2024]

The title never lies, we’re finally getting a break! Well, the title might lie sometimes, just a little, but not today!

The AQI will be improving over the next few days, and, I’ve noticed a little oscillation in the AQI, where it is the best from 3 pm to 3 am, and then worse otherwise. I would guess this has something to do with the BC wildfires and the day/night cycle.

Today the worst was at about 6 am, with 80, and the best is at 6 pm, with 22.

Tomorrow they are at 9 am and 9 pm, with 75 and 8.

On Friday they are at 9 am and 12 am, with 47 and 6.

Finally, on Saturday they are at 9 am and 6 pm, with 42 and 3.

The reason for this smoke improvement is hard to tell, but I’m pretty sure it’s the precipitation and wind.

[1 view as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Jul 24, 2024]

The heat waves, now over, were record-setting in many ways, with 18 daily records related to heat so far. This sounds like a table!

*DP = Dew point

Here’s another table! This one for monthly records. I’ll send an updated one of these the day after our first high below 25 in August.

*MDA = Most days above

*MCDA = Most consecutive days above

Note: MCDA days can be heat waves with only a portion of the days inside July.

[3 views as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Jul 23, 2024]

How was that title? I’ve been practicing for AccuWeather-level post titles and I’m pretty sure this title was worthy of that title. Okay, too many titles. Since this is probably going to be my longest post yet, I’m going to divide it up into four sections, plus an introduction and a conclusion; so I’m basically making an essay.

Our heat wave is coming to an end with some cool temperatures and a little precipitation. Here’s the forecast:

PART 1 – What is causing the temperature drop?

To see the beginning of this cooldown, we have to look at now. Opening good ol’ trusty Windy.com, we can see the rarely-seen-here work of the northern equatorial jet stream. The current layout is so hard to explain I’m just going to enter in an edited screenshot to help me and you out.

A. The two jet streams break apart around central Siberia.

B. The isolines are hard to see, but there is an “indent primarily upper-level low” there. That low is pushing the equatorial jet stream to the east, instead of just straight northeast.

C. The equatorial jet stream zooms back to the west, and then heads north to connect with the main jet stream before going back south to the Great Lakes, making a heat dome over areas of Yukon, Northwest Territories, Alberta, and Saskatchewan.

Our cooldown happens when the upper-level low heads over to Alberta, and then once it’s over the mountains, it transitions into a more lower-level low, and becomes very strong. It will break off from the equatorial jet stream around Thursday night, transforming it into a solitary low. The pressure then will be around 990 hPa. It will move off once we start the weekend, so we will see the end of the cold wave around Saturday or Sunday.

PART 2 – What is the temperature forecast?

It’s table time!

PART 3 – What is causing the precipitation?

The low of course, that’s how lows work. The main three models that are here and are long term – GFS, ICON, and ECMWF all say pretty much the same thing, except for GFS of course. It’s trash at forecasting clouds and precipitation. They both say that we will be getting the edge of a system expected to move through to the northwest of us, and they both say we’ll be getting the most precipitation on Friday. This really only lines up with AccuWeather’s forecast, because TWN is very generous for Tomorrow, and EC is generous for Tomorrow and Thursday, while not giving much for Friday. More in part 4!

PART 4 – What is the precipitation forecast?

It’s table time again! This forecast will probably not be the most accurate thing in the world, because my forecasts are going all over the place. I’ll probably send a more accurate forecast in a post tomorrow, with more certain expected conditions for Wednesday night, all of Thursday, and Friday night.

Final forecast

Today: High of 30, maybe 31. No precipitation in the day, but we might get something overnight tonight. Low near 17.

Tomorrow: The high will probably land in the mid 20s, but it might end up being in the low 20s. The low will be 16 or 17. There will also be some showers and thundershowers at times in the day and night.

Thursday: High near 20, and low 13. Possible showers, but not thunderstorms throughout the day and night.

Friday: Another high around 20, and a low near 14. There will be a couple of showers at times, most likely in the afternoon and evening.

Weekend: No precipitation, temperatures warming.

[6 views, 1 comment as of Sep 16, 2024]

[Posted Jul 19, 2024]

I’m pretty sure everyone has noticed the smoke by now. It’s not actually that bad near the surface, but once you get higher, sort of mid to upper troposphere higher, there is a think shroud of smoke. Once again, it’s not that bad, I can still see blue sky until about 35 degrees off the horizon, so it’s actually more like a haze. If the smoke was the same density all the way through the atmosphere, I could use a little math to figure out how far up it goes.

I did. It took a whole hour. I started at 10 and now it’s 11. The result was ~9.5 km, which would take us to almost the tropopause.

This smoke was un expected because I thought a forming high in southern Alberta would keep it all to the north. The thing is, a mini-high decided to also form, this time in northern Alberta. This one was just in the right position to push enough air down to give us some smoke. I’m still waiting for the latest maps, but at the moment it looks like the smoke came in at about 5 am, followed by low levels of smoke until about 8 am, before moving off to the east. The stuff that we can see right now is just the non-lower-troposphere smoke, and a little leftover haze.

[7 views, 1 comment as of Sep 16, 2024]