Here it is. The first month of fall is upon us. Let’s see how it might turn out.
For this week, we have quite a bit of variation. Like has been on the forecast for a while, tomorrow will be near normal, though maybe slightly above. Wednesday will be near 30, but then actually, in a recent turn of events, Thursday (and possibly Friday as well might actually end up cooler than tomorrow. Two days ago, they were supposed to be near 30 just like Wednesday. After that, it will probably warm up to the high 20s again for weekend and early next week.
So yes, quite a warm pattern for the first 10 days. After is when we may see quite a big switch. As you have likely heard extensively on the blog lately, the north Pacific Ocean is really blocked. Severely blocked. This is supposed to stay, but in about 7 days something might change. The block could finally break up. If this happens, which it probably will since we’re talking about 7 days ahead instead of 10 or more, then a sharp cold wave could come. This would probably happen around mid to late next week, and if strong enough, may even bring the first frost.
Following this cold wave, we don’t know what is going to happen. Week 3 is a complete mystery. For the final 7 days of month, I do want to say to watch for a warmer anomaly. Accuweather’s been saying something around there.
Finally, precipitation and smoke. I’m thinking we’ll very likely end up drier than normal this month. There really are not many precipitation chances in the next 10 days, and it is fall, so the lows are going to be drier than they have been. For smoke, for this last period of the season definitely watch the Northwest Territories. There are lots of fires there, and any northerly wind (like right now) could bring the smoke directly to us.