Hey there! Sorry posts have been quite few and far between this last month. The whole transition back to school, then not really having much time to post things, as well as getting sick have all contributed. I am going to do better this month though, hopefully keeping up 1-3 posts a week. (Also, there’s the strike. I’ll have lots of time for posts during it!)
So, let’s get started. Things are okay for confidence for the next week, then it drops off to basically unpredictable after the 10th. I’ll explain why later. First, this week!
As you have seen if you’re checking your inbox (or your junk file for my grandma for some reason) lately, the next few days are slightly above average, then down to slightly below on the weekend. For the most part dry, maybe a shower here or there. Since it is October, we do have to talk about frost. Our first frost was actually technically last Thursday morning. I woke up to the lightest coating on the rooftops, but not even anything on the ground. For our first significant frost, we’re still waiting. There is a chance these next for nights, maybe ~20% each, but nothing saying a definite frost until Saturday night. So our first significant frost is probably at the latest Monday morning. I say that because we might actually end up pretty windy for Saturday night, which could significantly reduce the amount of frost that forms.
Okay, now were getting past 5 days. At this point, the only things safe for me to say is temperature. Nothing else can really be certain. First, we have a heat wave. It’ll probably be short, only spanning one or two days around Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Second, a possible cold wave. It’s been showing up for a while now on The Weather Network, as well as the GFS and ECMWF weather models. Accuweather started to pick it up yesterday, though AIFS (An AI model run by the same company as ECMWF) has yet to show it. Currently it is not saying a different signal, just no signal. I’m not sure how long this cold wave will be, but there’s evidence of it spanning past 2-3 days.
Now third, we have…nothing. Yes, nothing. October is a very wildcard-y month, and especially this year. There is basically no signal anywhere for anything, and as we’ve learned for months now, sub-seasonal models (2-8 week forecasts) can be trusted is no way possible. As well, a rapidly strengthening La Niña, active west Pacific (tropical systems form there like to mess up the jet stream, especially at this time of year) as well as lots of snow in Siberia (which usually this early causes a lot of cold air to come from there and head east and once again mess up the jet stream) is creating massive quantities of uncertainty. This paired with October being a very transitional month, and there isn’t really anything I can actually predict. Nothing, beside that it’ll probably be volatile, because October always is.
So for now, that’s where we’ll have to leave it. Maybe I’ll do some sort of mid-October update, or just try to keep up the weekly medium-range forecasts.