Sorry it’s been a while since the last post on the blog; I was taking a break for the first bit of school. Somehow this heat wave is still going, but there seems to be evidence of it possibly ending soon.
Over the next 6 days, temperatures are going to continue to be quite above normal, with the hottest being Wednesday and Saturday. This heat is because the omega block, which was moving east, but kind of stopped a handful of days ago. Despite such a strong ridge, there actually is a low under it that is giving mainly Saskatchewan and Manitoba quite a few showers right now. This low will likely only give us a shower or two later this week, if anything.
The main thing to talk about here is next week. It seems the temperatures will cool a bit again, with a lot of uncertainty for where they’ll land. For Saturday and Monday, I think something like highs in the low 20s. We might see a bit more heat on Tuesday or Wednesday (It’s appeared on AccuWeather, which recently has usually been the first to find short one-day heat events). It is after this, that we might finally get a cold wave.
Even though this is a very recent thing (It has only really appeared in the last 24 hours), all the models are agreeing a lot about a cold wave late next week into the last weekend of September. It’s on The Weather Network, it’s on Accuweather, it’s on the US weather model, it’s on the European model, it’s even on the AI model. Everywhere temperature forecasts are dropping. I’m still not completely set on this though, because we’re talking a while out.
Currently, what are the models actually saying the reason for this long-awaiting cooldown is? I’ve looked, and it seems to be one thing: The Pacific High. for quite a while the Pacific high has been far out west. Usually it’s only 1-2 thousand kilometres off the west coast of the US, but for a while now it’s been more 3-4. It seems later this week it may actually drift back to its normal position, which when paired with the low in the Gulf of Alaska will really speed up the jet stream, pushing out the block. The low then sends out a trough, and down the temperature goes.
Well, that’s it for now! I will definitely provide more updates later, when confidence is more greatly acquired.