It’s a new month! Here’s what it may look like, divided into 5 sections:
PART 1 (1st – 2nd)
This part consists of today and tomorrow. As you probably know, these two days will be the final days of a heat wave we’ve had for a little while now. Highs will probably be right around 30.
PART 2 (3rd – 9th)
It seems after Saturday we will return to normal temperatures, but far from quietly. From Saturday night to Monday, showers and many storms are expected. After that, it seems thundershowers will probably continue as temperature follow a slow cooling trend down to below average. This is caused by the jet stream being near overhead as the ridge we have now will depart to the east.
PART 3 (10th – 13th)
It seems around here we might see a short heat wave as an upper-level high pushes up from the US, cause some ridging.
PART 4 (14th – 20th)
After the heat wave, we’ll probably once again go into our CCC state, but afterwards is when it gets a little fuzzy. It seems one of two things will happen. Either we stick with our pattern of alternating short-lived heat and cold waves, along with frequent storms; or we might end up in a drier and (maybe?) warmer anomaly. Currently it is hard to tell.
PART 5 (21st – 31st)
Here is where the most uncertainty is, as can be expected. This part may end up being pretty below average, though that’s not for certain. Near the end, there is a pretty good chance for a larger heat wave, which may continue (but more likely start) in the beginning of September.
Now, here are some things to expect for the month as a whole. For temperatures, we’ll probably end up near normal overall. For wind, it’ll probably be the same as July: Calm some days, windy most days. In terms of precipitation, there will very likely be a lot of variation, depending on where storms hit. Some parts could see only 30 or so mm for the whole month, while area only a handful of kilometres away could see well over 100. Finally, for smoke, I don’t think we are going to see too much. The areas where we usually source our smoke (northern Alberta and southern NT) look like they will get lots of rain.
One more thing, about the July recap, that will come sometime soon, but not today. It turns out the websites I use need a few days to collect all the data from the models.