We’ve had quite a dry July so far, but soon that will change. Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected to come through overnight tonight though Tuesday morning, accumulating something like 30-40 millimetres.
To show you what different models think, here is a graph showing the expected precipitation amounts:
I didn’t include Environment Canada, as it isn’t very precise. Instead I put in three models. HRDPS stands for High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System. It is run by the Government of Canada and has a resolution of 1 km (Which by the way, is really high). RDPS stands for Regional Deterministic Prediction System. It is run by the Government of Canada and has a resolution of 10 km. Finally GFS stands for Global Forecast System. It is run by NOAA and has a resolution of 0.25 degrees.
One more thing to note, the actual data there is for the end of 6-hour block. For example, Sun morn would mean the total precipitation from now up to the end of the morning.
Now, what is causing the precipitation? If you look at the graph you can probably see the two main waves of precipitation. There’s one from overnight tonight to Sunday morning, and another Monday night and Tuesday morning. The first is a low carrying lots of precipitation from BC through towards southern Saskatchewan and eventually out of Canada. This will probably bring the majority of the rain. The second wave is a cold front coming through. This one will be coming from the Northwest Territories, where over the weekend a trough is expected to enter. The cold front will bring some precipitation, but it’ll definitely not last as long as the first wave. Of course, the cold front will also bring cooler air, but after taking a peek at next week’s forecast it might actually only bring cool temperatures for a short time before it warms up again.
My grass is going to look like a golf course!!😁
Maybe you should set one up!