Going way back all the way to about a year ago, it first started to seem likely that a low to moderate El Niño was in store for the 2025/26 winter. However, back then I was still watching the 2024/25 winter to see what it would end up being (which was a borderline La Niña). After that, it was looking like a likely weak El Niño for this upcoming winter. Only around February did it actually show some sign of a reversal of the trend on the forecast. During February and March, about 25% of models were saying the Niño3.4 area (the section of the Pacific Ocean that is measured to deduce ENSO*) was going to warm up in the spring, peak a little above average in July or August, and then fall back down to a weak La Niña. This was interesting at the time, but it still looked unlikely to happen. Over the next few months, more and more models switched from above average to below average on the forecast, which leaves us at now, where only about 15% of the models still say we will have an above average anomaly this winter (but 0% say we ill get actually close of an official El Niño).
So Ben, what does that even mean and how much snowfall will we get from Sep 13, 2025 at 7:48 am to April 4, 2028 at a pi/3 seconds after 1:12 pm to the nearest hundredth of a centimetre? – Someone who doesn’t know that inaccuracies exist, July 2025
I’m just going to ignore that question. Next!
Ben, how will this affect the temperature and snowfall this next winter? – An actually sensible individual, also July 2025
Much better. As it stands, expect something similar to last winter; moderate not-very-infrequent cold waves, near to slightly above average snowfall. That’s about as much detail as I can do right now.
*If you didn’t know, ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation.