[Posted Jul 18, 2024]
You’ve probably seen somewhere just how bad the wildfires are right now; either from the news, my forecasts, (37 active fires in Alberta yesterday as of 4:00 pm!) or of course, The Weather Network. Their forecast center videos have been screaming at me for the past few days about the smoke, even though the air is crisp and clean.
Taking a look back, in 2023 around this time of year we had a similar amount of fires to now, though maybe we have a few less this year. The fire count was fantastically low before July. The smoke situation however, is astronomically better, with the smoke so far around 10 times lower than last year. In 2023 from January 1 – July 18 there were 29 days with the AQI averaging above 100. This year, only 3 days.
This year
Last year
If you have a burning hatred inside for smoke, thank two very surprising things: 2023 and the heat.
2023 was great for the fires because scientists could do mega-research whenever and wherever they want, because massive fires were literally everywhere for about 5 months. Then there was a conveniently placed winter where a ton of solutions could be developed from the winter, and then tested on those fires that just really didn’t want to hibernate. All these solutions could be easily done when there are not many fires, also known as this year before July.
The heat is more specifically the heat dome. You see, the heat dome is being very heat-domey right now, with very stable air, pressure and temperature. That is at least for the lower troposphere, since anything above that has a ton of convection, enough for me to see a thunderstorm go from Cumulus mediocris to Cumulonimbus capillatus incus in just 20 minutes yesterday! That wind could mean that if the smoke reaches even the middle troposphere, it could collect right over us, partially blocking out the sun. Anyways, the point is, since things are really stable, there just isn’t enough wind for any smoke to come over here.
To answer the question that is the title of this post, the smoke should hold off for at least another week. Once the heat dome breaks down, I’ll be checking those wind maps every day to see when we might finally have some more smoke.
[4 views as of Sep 16, 2024]