[Posted Aug 1, 2024]
Any of you remember the El Niño season of 2022 – 2023? Specifically August to February? Well, if you can remember the weather way back then, then you’re in for some Déjà vu this season! The big temperature pattern was:
Cold wave for 2-14 days, then a temperature rise of ~20 degrees, then a heat wave for 2-14 days, then a temperature drop of ~20 degrees, repeat.
We had a grueling 7 months of this in the El Niño season of 2022 – 2023, and it looks like it’s happening again. I first started this long-range forecast-venture around the start of July, where I actually figured out that we’re getting this pattern until January or February. All it took was a peek at the ENSO forecast and some past ocean temperature data, plus some climate averages.
It took all the way until yesterday evening while making the forecast to discover something very special about the temperature in July: The pattern has already started. Here’s a layout of the temperature:
Cold wave 1st – 6th – Lowest temperature 13, on the 4th.
Warmup 7th – 8th – Temperatures rise by 20 degrees over 12 hours.
Heat wave 7th – 11th – Highest temperature 36, on the 10th.
Cooldown 10th – 12th – Temperatures drop by 21 degrees over 60 hours.
Cold wave 12th – 14th – Lowest temperature 14, on the 13th.
Warmup 15th – 17th – Temperatures rise by 19 degrees over 36 hours.
Heat wave 15th – 23rd – Highest temperature 35, on the 18th.
Cooldown 23rd – 25th – Temperatures drop by 18 degrees over 60 hours.
Cold wave 14th – 27th – Lowest temperature 11, on the 15th and 16th.
Warmup 26th – 28th – Temperatures rise by 17 degrees over 36 hours.
Heat wave 28th – 31st – Highest temperature 30, on the 31st.
A full month of ups and downs! It seems a little one-sided though, since the highest temperature almost broke the all-time record, while the lowest was only 11. The thing is, that was just from the way the dice rolled! (Also maybe a little El Niño and climate change played a role) We could have easily had 30 and 5.
Now for the forecast. Overall, this pattern will continue until about January or February next year. In July, we had the temperature overall above average. In August, it looks like near average, and as we head into Fall, we should see that change into below average, and that trend is expected to stay for the rest of the year.
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