Ben's Weather Blog

You might have seen on the forecast that today and tomorrow will be quite chilly and rainy, but that may change for the rest of the week.

Today we got a pretty easy-to-understand upper atmosphere layout. All you really need to know is that currently there is a low off the west coast, far enough south that I wouldn’t consider it in the Gulf of Alaska; and a high over the tip of Québec. For this, we’ll say that the low is stationary, even though it isn’t. Because that will make this simpler. So, for this pattern, a really crazy rare thing is happening to the high: It is moving west! Isn’t that crazy? Right? Right?

At this point some of you may already be confused. But don’t worry. I’ll explain. Basically, all systems on Earth like to move east. They like doing it more than anything else. So, they will almost never go west unless if the right pressure systems manage to push it that way. For a more correct explanation, head down to the bottom of the page.

Moving west, eh? Lets see what’s west of Québec. Since upper-level ridges usually come up west of highs, lets go 2500 km. Wait a minute…

Wait a minute indeed. As well, remember that low? Well, what if I told you that at the same time as that high will move west, another low will appear in the central to western US and then we suddenly see an upper level alternation: Low-high-low. You know what that means? It’s omega block time!!!1!11!

If you don’t know what an omega block is, then…sorry. I don’t have enough time to explain that all. I already made a huge hunk of a paragraph at the end of this post. Maybe just use google for this one.

Okay Ben, just tell me the forecast already! All this buildup wasn’t in the job description!

Did you read the fine print? You’re going to have to wait until the forecast this evening, unless if you’re one of my amazing Elementeers©, then you’ll get earlier and more detailed “content”. HahahahaGOGETELEMENTNOW

Okay, here’s actually why systems move east: Despite what flat earthers tell you, the Earth IS a sphere. In addition, it is spinning. This spinning interacts with the upper troposphere (It does affect more, but that doesn’t really matter for weather) and creates streams of very fast-moving air. These are the jet streams. The jet stream interacts pressure systems, witch in turn interact with others, and eventually almost all the systems move west. Of course, in the southern hemisphere it is flipped, and as well some systems can actually move the “wrong way” on their own when they’re near the equator. This usually happens with tropical cyclones, which is why some Maritimers may keep an eye out when the Caribbean is warm and a cyclone develops off the west coast of Africa.

You may have seem it already on Environment Canada; those temperatures will be warming quite a bit!

Coming up late this week, on the weekend, and also for a big chunk of next week temperatures are expected to be slightly to far above average. Currently, Environment Canada is forecasting a highest temperature for the heat wave of 17 degrees, AccuWeather is saying 16, and The Weather Network 13. I would say we’re probably going to get to somewhere between 15 and 20 degrees. For more details, you can check Element in a little while; I’m going to post a chart there soon.

There is something special about this heat wave – It’s actually our first “summer” heat wave. What’s a “summer” heat wave? Well, here’s an explanation:

In winter, heat waves are almost always caused by low pressure systems. Meanwhile, cold waves are created by high pressure systems. In summer it’s the opposite; heat is caused by a high, and cold is caused by a low. In spring and fall, it can be either, but usually the former half will have a similar pattern to the preceding season, and the latter half will have a similar pattern to the proceeding season.

So far, this spring we have not had any summer-like patterns, but this upcoming heat wave is going to change that, making it so that we will have had one yet. That’s a lot of one-syllable words in a row!

“But Ben, what’s causing this? Like really, what IS causing this?!” -You; March 2025

Currently, we have a rex block (a high north of a low that stretches the jet stream into a backward S shape) in the Pacific. The high is over the Aleutian islands, and the low is around the very outmost Hawai’ian Islands. As we look into the next 24 hours, we actually see the high fizzle out right away. Usually this would mean the upper-level ridge just fades to nothing. However the low has different plans. It harnesses the jet stream over Tuesday night before then actually reinforcing the upper-level ridge. As this point there is also high pressure off the west coast of the US, and a low in the southern US. This is starting to look like an omega block!

As the jet stream violently squeezes the off-the-west-coast high, a new one enters the scene. A new high that very quickly formed and strengthened over Yukon and the Northwest Territories is beginning to race down to the Canadian and even American prairies, and is pushing down the cold air, leaving average in its wake. This average is what we’re going to feel on Friday. Then, the low follows behind. However, the low is actually still in the Gulf of Alaska. What has happened is the low has created a very long trough which wraps all the way around the mountains, and down into Alberta, as it follows the high. The trough reaches Alberta on Saturday, and then we delve into the realm of above average temperatures.

How long will it last? Well, it seems maybe around next Tuesday a low will break up the omega block, so we might return to average around then. This is not completely guaranteed, but later next week the low might restrengthen and might seed another omega block and another high might reinforce that, but I’m really unsure.

A really big weather flip is on it’s way, which will set the weather tone for the rest of spring break. Here’s what’s going on:

If you have taken a look at a forecast lately, you probably would have noticed the temperatures are about to drop way down to near 0 highs. Well, what’s the reason for this? Mainly, it is three pressure systems tangling the jet stream in just the right way for an extended cold wave. Here’s a picture to explain what’s going on:

The map here shows what the wind is like right now 9 km above us. The yellow line shows where the jet stream is right now.

I have on the map our three pressure systems marked out. There is a low in the Gulf of Alaska (Red), a high to the west of that low (Orange), and a high near the north pole (Yellow). The high in the Pacific Ocean will move northward (Lime), and push up the jet stream (Green). The big thing that will cause the cooldown is the second high, which is in the polar vortex, moving down towards the land (Blue). It is moving because it was pushed away by the first high moving northward and causing the jet stream to ridge. As this high moves down, it will push the jet stream south creating an area of zonal flow (Light blue), which doesn’t really matter to us as it’s in the southern US. However, what does matter is that the high has moved down south to the Canadian prairies, and will be giving our area a period of cool weather (Dark blue).

Well, looks like we’ll be in for a ride with all the water freezing up again. Luckily, it doesn’t look like we’ll get any precipiiwwait a minute! You thought it was over? Try reading the next post! This one was only part 1!

Once upon a time, there was a high. This high currently is in the Canadian prairies, where it’s enjoying its few days in comfort, bringing quite cool weather to Alberta, but maybe a little too cold of weather basically everywhere else in this half of the country. (Regina got a wind chill of -38 last night) This high originated up in the arctic, where it formed part of the polar vortex, along with its similarly cool friends. It did, however, have a dream of one day of setting up a farm and living a great life growing and harvesting crops, and living off the land, but this northerly soil was just simply not fertile enough for that. So then… only a few days ago, it finally decided to move south, looking for a more feasible land to plant in. It is a hard endeavor moving such a long distance, but so far the high is already halfway there. It should be there by about tomorrow evening.

Of course, when two highs separate, trouble usually follows! A mischievous low has been watching the high and waiting to unleash it’s plan this whole weekend! This low has really been wanting that land for it’s own plans, but the high snatched it up before this low could actually get down there. Now that high has to go. It must be rid of, so this land can actually be put to good use.

The low has already started to unleash it’s plan, by beginning with making a trough extending from it’s home- just north of Alaska- all the way down to at the moment about Yellowknife. Tonight it will extend this trough to about northern Alberta, before then sending out a smaller “minion low” tomorrow to secure the area.

Over Tuesday, this minion low will continue to move through Alberta and Saskatchewan while securing the land before heroically getting sucked up by some highs about the moment it gets into the US. This will mean temperatures nearing 0 for a high on Tuesday. A little wrap-around precipitation may be left behind, so we a chance at precipitation Tuesday night. On Wednesday, some allies of the high will manage to “ridge up” jet stream a bit, but not enough for a significant amount of cooling. It is still supposed to be slightly cooler.

By Wednesday, the low is growing restless. It must capture the land and force out the high. The low will take a very dangerous move: It will slide all the way over into the prairies, ready to fight for and win its land. The highs and lows will soon clash in an extraordinary mixture of temperatures spread out over the whole western half of the country! Once that’s nearing an end, one high- the original high- completes a daring move on Thursday night; it makes a ridge! This ridge pushes away the low with much, much force, now making the low stuck in Hudson Bay. It wanted land, not water!

Now that the high has triumphed, it can finally set out to what it wanted to do, while sitting back and watching the ridge slowly dissipate and the prairies descending back down to a cold wave. The end.

The temperature patterns are turning out very interesting, with the possibility of a -20 low, followed by a -5 high the next day.

Overall, it looks like temperatures will be cooling over the next few days, with a once-again possible -15 high and -20 low, and the a very sudden perk up as a rapidly disintegrating upper-level ridge slightly intrudes on our territory. It will still be below average, just not as much. Then, as soon as it came, we’ll be back in the possible -15 high and -20 low range. That for only a few more days, and then it looks like November 30th will mark the end of the cold wave, before temperatures are forecasted to go up again. This would mean, if correct, that our cold wave will be a total of 12 says long.

Interesting to see what’s coming. For the snow that’s coming soon, check out the post 2 before this one, of just go to the latest short-range forecast.